The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is closely watching several areas of disturbed weather across the eastern and central North Pacific Ocean as of July 12-13, 2026. The Atlantic basin remains quiet with no tropical cyclone formation expected in the next seven days. This increased Pacific activity and suppressed Atlantic season is typical during an El Niño year.

Main System South of Mexico

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of southwestern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are favorable for gradual development, and forecasters expect a tropical depression to form during the early to middle part of this week. The system is forecast to move west-northwestward, staying well offshore of Mexico. It currently has a medium (40%) chance of formation in the next 48 hours and a high (90%) chance through seven days.

Other Areas of Interest

Farther west, a weak and elongated low pressure area about 1,500 miles southwest of Baja California continues to generate some showers and thunderstorms. Limited additional development is possible in the short term, but the system will soon encounter strong upper-level winds and drier air, limiting its potential. Formation chances remain low at 20% for both 48 hours and seven days. Another trough well south-southeast of Hawaii is producing limited showers with only a low (10-30%) chance of slow development while staying far from the islands.

Current Outlook

No tropical cyclones are active in the basin at this time. Mariners and interests in the eastern Pacific should monitor future updates from the NHC, as the situation near Mexico has the highest potential to become the next named storm of the season. For the latest graphics and forecasts, visit the official NHC Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook page.